Experiencing a Russian Neurosis

Self-inflicting wounds provide the best opportunity when markets mirror an emotional response that diverges from the economic realities of a nation awash in resources. Patience is an investors best friend and when pull backs occur, we take notice and begin positioning ourselves to benefit from a shift in social mood or rather a saturation in news that provides a base.

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A "Shale" Deal

Every so often investors can be lulled into complacency with hopes of endless supplies; wishful thinking around finite resources and the costs associated to extracting them. Recently, Shale has been the new kid on the block, promising exactly that and delivering on the promise – lifting the United States to the coveted spot of largest producer but all that flows is not as it may seem.

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Bouncing with Bonds

Given the recent rally in bonds from the beginning of the year, some relief from the rush into them is expected as investors look to re-position themselves as the moves in Europe begin to take shape. While the Fed continues to communicate longer than usual stimulus to ensure low rates, the bonds are especially sensitive to outflows into other markets as investors seek to yield since this will cause the dollar to strengthen, forcing the Feds hand to address the issue.

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A Tweet Deal for Speculators

As the reality around the lack of subscriber growth sinks in, Twitter will need to pivot in a different direction to generate revenue by realizing the power of the platform is in the emotional metrics. This will likely take a quarter for investors to see how the company is positioning itself, leading to weakness over the summer as Twitter works to arrive at strategic relationships to build better integration with platforms that can provide this data.

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Record Oil Inventories

As the Shale Boom, however temporary, continues to push crude supplies to record levels not seen since the early 1930’s – expect to see weakness which goes against the seasonal trend into the driving months. Barring any social unrest around Russia on the global stage, a pullback is expected as both a stronger dollar from Fed actions along with $5-$8 dollars per barrel is removed from decreasing tensions as emotions wane from sanctions.

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An Amazon Summer

Designed to help one acquire a position in Amazon, the plan reflects the multiple sectors of revenue under attack; From Google/Microsoft on the Cloud sector, to small measurable decrease revenue from Amazon Prime renewals, to a possible product launch issues around the new set-top box if it is not well received in an already crowded sector.

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