Trouble with the Curve

The yield curve has predicted almost every US recession and as the Fed raises interest rates with markets at all time highs, some would say the stars are aligning for some doubt around whether President Trump can deliver on his economic policies to continue to lift inflation expectations.

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Experiencing a Russian Neurosis

Self-inflicting wounds provide the best opportunity when markets mirror an emotional response that diverges from the economic realities of a nation awash in resources. Patience is an investors best friend and when pull backs occur, we take notice and begin positioning ourselves to benefit from a shift in social mood or rather a saturation in news that provides a base.

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Bouncing with Bonds

Given the recent rally in bonds from the beginning of the year, some relief from the rush into them is expected as investors look to re-position themselves as the moves in Europe begin to take shape. While the Fed continues to communicate longer than usual stimulus to ensure low rates, the bonds are especially sensitive to outflows into other markets as investors seek to yield since this will cause the dollar to strengthen, forcing the Feds hand to address the issue.

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