The "clean" Burning Question

Natural gas fuel supplier Clean Energy Fuels surged to new heights — increasing its stock by 11.8%. While everything looks great on the alternative energy front, market optimism may have gotten ahead of itself as industry players shift risk from the upcoming pivot to electric vehicles. This means we can tease out opportunities in the months ahead.

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Rising price of oil
As economies come back online from COVID’s impact and vaccines spark optimism of a global recovery, the increased energy demand is beginning to drive up oil prices and production globally. Given that the value of alternatives to oil typically increases with this activity, the market will begin pricing in competitively priced, “greener” energy with climate change being one of the next Administration’s main agendas. This should benefit Clean Energy’s primary business of renewable fuel, as the focus on heavy-duty trucking, airports, public transit, institutional energy users, and government fleets.


Strong market performance
“Redeem”, the company’s top brand has proven to be incredibly popular with its retail sales increasing by 30%. To add the icing to the cake, the company inked a seven-year deal with UPS to supply it with 170 million gallons of sustainable truck fuel. Redeem now makes up more than 60% of Clean Energy's overall fuel mix, and the company hopes to shift to 100% Redeem by 2025 making this a path forward.


The downside opportunity
While renewable energy is arguably the future, it’s still unclear how it will hold up when more advanced battery-powered trucks and semis come in, knocking out gas-fueled vehicles from the market. Recently the attention of investors has shifted to the more trendy electric message. But that requires investors to suspend disbelief and believe the infrastructure will magically appear to support this new method. And this is our opportunity to get some good entries and exits on this solid player in the market.

Green Channel

5.64:1
reward : risk
level reached 69.77%
Blue Channel

4.18:1
reward : risk
level reached 39.53%
Red Channel

3.89:1
reward : risk
level reached 23.26%

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