Tidal Shifts and Inflation Valves

It is not hard to look back and see that when central banks push money into the system, stocks rise and when they pull money out – they fall. In simple terms, the markets are an inflation valve overlaying a system of innovation. What has changed since December? The Federal Reserve has begun the process of raising rates and now the markets must re-balance based on current sources of innovation and monitor for new injections of currency.

What does this mean for the average investor?  We shift to an era of active investing.

In the first half of 2016, the markets must discover new opportunities of innovation; either through enhancements in productivity or reduction in labor or resources rather than the guaranteed money the central bank afforded us.  We are at an inflection point where genetics, nano-technology, artificial intelligence and big data are poised to change supply curves thought immovable, shift demographics to redefine sectors and create opportunity on a scale never imagined from connecting us all together but these technologies take time to scale.

This provides the uncertainty that markets thrive on.

Needless to say, the green channel provides the highest probability but caution is advised until the red channel is broken.

  Price Shares Cost Returns R/R
Blue Channel 1:1.28
Buy $187.00
$1,496.00  
Reward $197.01 $1,576.08 $80.08
Risk $174.15 $1,393.20 ($102.80)
Cancel $192.50    
 
Green Channel 5.53:1
Buy $174.15
$3,308.85  
Reward $198.66 $3,774.54 $465.69
Risk $169.72 $3,224.68 ($84.17)
Even $177.96      
 
1st Trade exit @ reward target $93.28  
Total Reward from all applicable channels $558.97  
Total Risk from all applicable channels ($222.41)  
 
Black Channel 2.22:1
Buy $169.72
$4,921.88  
Reward $197.08 $5,715.32 $793.44
Risk $157.42 $4,565.18 ($356.70)
Even $173.69      
 
1st Trade exit @ reward target $80.64  
2nd Trade exit @ reward target $435.67  
Total Reward from all applicable channels $1,309.75  
Total Risk from all applicable channels ($911.21)  
Action to take
Place buy limit order for $8.00 of SPY @ $187.00
Set sell limit order for 8 @ $197.01 AND Place a buy limit order for 19 @ $174.15
Cancel buy limit order for 19 @ $174.15, congratulations on a successfull trade!
Date Quantity Order Price Fill Price Commision Status Channel
  Activity Log User Date
Plan created Dave Friedel 1/16/2016
The plan has triggered buy level 1 since SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust hit the purchase price of $187.00 STOCKPROCESS 1/20/2016
Date Type Message Status
Total Records: 0 - Page: 0 of 0
Date Charity Amount Status
Total Records: 0 - Page: 0 of 0
  1. Check Plan Status

    Make sure the plan has not begun yet. Once InProgress, you will need to decide if you want to catch up.

  2. Review the Amount of Capital

    Each plan has a total amount of capital that may be used to execute. You can adjust the amount you want to assign to this plan & press Update & Review

  3. Set your Buy Order

    Each channel will provide a buy price and # of shares. You will want to set the 1st order as GTC at your broker

  4. Set your Reward Target

    When the first order executes, you will need to create an exit order at the target price

  5. Watch the Cancel Target

    If we hit the Cancel Price before the Buy Price, you will cancel the order as the plan is invalid.

  6. Set Buy Order

    When you enter your 1st Buy Order, set the 2nd Buy Order immediately. You can do this at the same time as the 1st order

  7. If 2nd Buy Triggers

    Set the exit for all the shares from 1st and 2nd at the 2nd Reward. This means canceling the 1st Reward target but you should also set the 3rd Buy Price.

  8. Changing your Mind

    If you want to exit the plan with no loss at this point, this is your break even price that you will need to set for all open shares.

  9. Risk for 2nd Execution

    The total risk for 1st and 2nd execution if you use the 2nd risk target to exit all shares.

  10. Reward for 2nd Execution

    The total returns for 1st and 2nd executions if you exit all shares at 2nd reward target.

  11. Repeat like Above

    You will repeat the same steps as above but for these price levels.

  12. Risk for Entire Plan

    If the 3rd Risk target is hit, this will be your total loss for the plan.

  13. Reward for Entire Plan

    If you exit all shares at the 3rd Reward target, this will be your profit.

  14. Interactive Chart

    You can press the Play icon on the chart and it will fill in the chart as days pass.

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